it has many properties that we tend to observe in the national economies, such But well have to start at the beginning: how did East Asian countries get so rich, so fast? Senior employees did get rich, through a tradition of Amakudari (descent from heaven) in which senior bureaucrats would, late in their careers, land C-level jobs at the companies they had regulated. Loans are another source of corruption. They knew that they could only earn high profits by exporting at scale; our policy just has to maintain profits at incrementally higher scales. growth for the same countries that is obtained by changing the values of the different The most predictive model of the modal government employee in the US is that theyre collecting a pension from day one, but they have to wait in line for roughly forty hours a week to receive it. to boost economic growth. The reason is that it has many properties that we tend to observe in the national economies, such as constant returns to scale and constant factor income shares (with a capital share of and a labour share of 1-). If we dont take manufacturing exports seriously, someone else will. (1995), Singapore: A Case Study in Rapid Development, growth rates (the second and the third terms in (3)). The pro-inflation argument is a lot simpler: inflation is a side effect of fiscal or monetary stimulus, both of which accelerate growth. The approach of letting the economy simply be. If the result is that factory owners competitively seek out the best places to build new plants, and start construction as quickly as possible, then its a net boon to Chinese growth. The governments of Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan also worked to promote specific exporting industries, which were termed as an export push strategy. this case, the data will reveal a strong correlation between the export performance This is not just a theoretical exercise. The first panel of Figure 9 shows the investment rate of the Four Tigers during the intellectual debate. and on their role as models for others. Some groups, particularly religious groups, have far higher fertility rates. The worst performing country in this region, The approach taken has been different among the four nations. In fact, it would more or less force it to happen. this can permanently increase the growth rate (usually through increasing returns about public policy can be made, changing the nature of the neoclassical-revisionist But to see why, well have to start at the beginning: how did East Asian countries get so rich, so fast? But in the Miracle economies, the most ambitious people were the ones telling banks where to lend, not the ones doing the borrowing or the lending, or taking political credit for the jobs that resulted. Edith Terry. is capital accumulation, accounting for between 48 and 72 per cent of their Why bother getting rich when you can get powerful instead? [1] Note that while this is true broadly, its not true for everybody. (row+1.96sd). of the attention focused on the fast technological catch-up in Japan, on the other hand, shares a similar story. Case study . These growth rates, sustained over a 30-year period, are simply amazing. Things really started to take off in Northern Italy, which is also where the plague first arrived. An active trade policy has landed suddenly back on the policy menu in the US and other places. I should emphasize three things about this regime: 1. If the loans backing POSCO or the South Korean chemicals industry had been traded on open markets, they might have dropped from 100 cents on the dollar down to 50 or less as the project struggled to take off. fastest-growing Theyd survived a war, like Japanbut in their case, they were invaded by a nuclear power, and with the help of another nuclear power they fought back to a stalemate. From Seoul to Si ngapore, the Asians have committed them- selves to: of Economic growth through International competitiveness. As recently as the early 1960s South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and Hong Kong (the "Asian Tigers") were considered to be a part of the third world: Harvey and Lee rather unkindly refer to it as "economic backwardness.". Young, A. Both Japan and Korea significantly dialed back the IP theft as they advanced, and started doing their own R&D instead. They. Perhaps Chinas planners are performing exactly the same calculation. The alternative is to source capital from banks: bank loans dont get quoted every day on an exchange, so even if something reduces the loans perceived odds of getting repaid, accounting rules allow bankers and borrowers to live in denial. explain a large fraction of their growth performance. But its the party line that Taiwan is a part of China. But those implicit subsidies applied to imports just as much as domestically-produced cars, so the industrial planners knew that if they achieved breakeven, theyd enjoy a long runway during which theyd produce higher returns. The main arguments and all the tables presented in this section order, enforcement of contracts and adequate provision of public goods, such not states but for which statistical data are maintained and provided internationally perhaps the most frequently-cited example of such research was the world bank's the east asian miracle, 1 published in 1993, which suggested that asia's extraordinary growth was due to superior accumulation of physical and human capitalsuperior not merely in the sense of rapid accumulation of factors of production, but also accompanied by high The Japanese industrial growth playbook, applied in industry after industry, looked like this: Japanese postwar economic history was a long series of increasingly impressive export-driven economic booms, leading to a serious level of creative nicknames. Fortunately for savvy countries, there are ways to apply indirect tariffs, too. This is a time-honored tradition; as Ha-Joon Chang points out in Bad Samaritans, Renaissance England once had comically aggressive industrial espionage laws: if you told the perfidious Dutch the secrets of English textiles, you could be executed. This is also unfair! education, causing a significant increase in the enrolment rate at all school At the same time, a city-state like Singapore does have the advantage that its relatively easier to maintain control, which means the government can tolerate more macroeconomic volatility. advantage for the specific individual (relative to other individuals in the policies as promoting economic growth. From there, Korea expanded into chemicals and, famously, cars. Most accounts of the 'East Asian miracle' emphasize education. However, the simple Ricardian model of trade makes a few untenable assumptions, and other countries have learned to exploit them. The economic rise of a number of East Asian countries, notably the `four little tigers' - Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan - has been addressed by various approaches. Since 1960, Asia, the largest and most populous of the continents, has become richer faster than any other region of the world. Lucas, R.E. When I talk to people about US free trade policy, one of the concerns is the effects that our policies have on workers in the third world. South Korea was the exception to this. rate as determinants of growth is the strong positive correlation between these person. Bercuson, K. South Korea, in particular, had achieved a secondary education enrolment rate of 88 per cent by 1987. It is not really clear why large positive outliers should contain more information While income inequalities have grown in most of SEA, they have remained lower in NEA. Lessons from the East Asian Miracle Revisited M. G. Quibria February 2002 ADB INSTITUTE TOKYO A SIAN D EVELOPMENT B ANK I NSTITUTE A SIAN D EVELOPMENT B ANK I NSTITUTE This paper provides an extensive review of growth, inequality and poverty reduction in the East Asian miracle economies. Malthuss original thesis was that since population tends to grow exponentially and food production tends to grow linearly, well always tend to grow the population to the point that maximum food output can just barely support it. As argued by the World Bank, [w]ere some selective interventions, Oil is a global market only because the American navy protects global oil shipments, and losing that protection, or facing a naval conflict with the U.S., would wreck the Chinese economy. This later turned into a huge problem in Japan, Korea, and China; all three countries suffered from zombie banks that financed zombie companies, while in a more open market the result would have been bankruptcy. Mi land reform (in Japan, Korea, and Taiwan), chio Morishima, for example, argues that Con . Instead, it attempts to critically review the different East-Asian economies. To put it differently, there is a severe problem with the number of observations This finding The main reason for this sensitivity is the estimation process of the capital stock while others do not, then the government should increase the growth rate by and the United Kingdom). it also advocates selective interventionist policies. Learn on the go with our new app. and presented. While Rodrik's results suggest a possible explanation question Rodrik asks is how much of the actual growth of the high-performing simply amazing: while the average resident of a Meanwhile, monetary stimulus tends to help them, which pushes East Asian economies towards zero interest policies. economics in general, and to economic growth in particular, but it also contains A less partisan but more persuasive work is Joe Studwells. That observation doesnt invalidate the theories, it just illustrates their limitations: If X and Y, then Z implies If not Z, then not X or Y. Good candidates for X or Y include perfect competition and constant returns to scale. Below-market salaries and big options packages make employees hard to poach, mimicking the effects that lifetime employment and government-sanctioned monopolies have on employee incentives. government or the accumulation of education) are found in many studies to be South Korea, in particular, had deficits lower than OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) average in the 1980s. If you have a port, and your port is close to a growing industrial powerhouse, you dont have to plan ahead as much; you just have to avoid making any catastrophic mistakes. Perhaps Chinas planners are performing exactly the same calculation. The point is that its cheaper for incumbents to stay on top than it is for challengers to get on top, so as long as incumbents commit to staying that way, challengers bother somebody else.[9]. If you get fined 100% of your revenue for allowing piracy, but you grow your business 10x by the time you actually pay the fine, youll survive. pp. levels of these variables in the Four Tigers with those in other countries. Meanwhile, monetary stimulus tends to help them, which pushes East Asian economies towards zero interest policies. 1. Lucas, R.E. extrapolation? Postwar Japan was an economic basket case. size but opposite performance, the number of articles over this period was: Given the simplicity of the growth-accounting theory, it appears that there This oversized wholesale industry served two purposes: it was a welfare and retirement program for unneeded workers in manufacturing companies and it meant many layers of red tape for companies exporting to Japan. The second view emphasises the problems associated This led some observers to refer to the growth as an "East Asian Miracle." One popular explanation attributes the source of the rapid growth to state led industrial development . The Growth Experience of Japan What Lessons to Draw? The term country, as used in this study, may not refer Lee Kuan Yew gets a lot of mindshare for the same reason Churchill does say what you want about his decisions, but he probably said it better in one of his books. causality. Finally, This achievement is possibly [4] Management-by-binge-drinking is a pattern that shows up just often enough to be worth researching some time. Export policies have been one of the reasons for the rise of these Four Asian Tiger economies. some ideological elements of an underlying belief in classical liberalism. Furthermore, it is not clear what are the normative implications of these findings. argument is that export orientation increases the openness of the economy and Postwar Japan was an economic basketcase. A similar argument is The societies in these countries paid a huge price for achieving these impressive Miracle, in The case of strong positive correlation between investment rates (or, equivalently, This system cant last forever, but its basically running an industrial policy by making a series of Kelly bets: you maximize your long-term returns only by accepting a surprisingly high level of volatility. Sometimes this was due to international pressure (although they were adept at dodging that; when Japan finally stopped directly subsidizing exports, they started allowing exporters to depreciate equipment faster, which, for a profitable company, is economically equivalent to a direct subsidy). The figure makes clear that the investment rates of Korea, 1. are found to be good for growth. [3] Thats true of any country, of course. The conclusion that emerges is the following: although the Four Tigers accumulated [3] In theory, Japan is a representative democracy, in which voters elect legislators who pass laws, etc. Set of International Comparisons, 19501988, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106(2), First, because education is a normal good (or perhaps even a luxury And MITI was right. Eventually, move to heavy machinery, cars, specialty chemicals, and electronics. The idea is simple: the only way to produce wealth is to make something people in other countries want to buy, but poor countries have a comparative disadvantage in complex manufacturing. Not surprisingly, the advocates past generation. As Joe Studwell argues in How Asia Works, Singapore is not a useful case study, because free-market policies work unusually well for city-states that prosper through trade and finance. The growth decomposition in equation (3) also leads to an interpretation that plays in practice things tend to become very complicated. The big incremental expense that they do have is marketing, which is increasingly just revenue for a different software company. as constant returns to scale and constant factor income shares (with a capital [4] Management-by-binge-drinking is a pattern that shows up just often enough to be worth researching some time. highly productive investments and . values ( = 0.333333, depreciation rate = 0.04, reference period used Salesforce did this in a big way; Y Combinator is a sort of Zaibatsu that gives startups instant access to a few hundred good customers. Under a corrupt system, that would be a disaster; under an efficient one, it was a boon. allocation of credit. Japan had to adopt ideas from 19th century neo-mercantilists, and Korea had to adapt them, but China just had to look at what had worked over the previous decades and do it at scale. of the financial and banking systems, and ensure open markets, as well as stable Some groups, particularly religious groups, have far higher fertility rates. Asian growth, like that of the Soviet Union in its high-growth era, seems to be driven by extraordinary growth in inputs like labour and capital rather than by gains in efficiency. Lau (1994). Japan had to adopt ideas from 19th-century neo-mercantilists and Korea had to adapt them, but China just had to look at what had worked over the previous decades and do it at scale. This panel clearly rejects the view that investment rates compares the growth rates of output per person of the Four Tigers with those Small group of people has no politics. In my review of the top-ten textbooks (Economics on Trial, Irwin, 1993), few economists tell the wonders of Japanese prosperity and none reveals the secrets of the Four Tigers (Hong Kong, Singapore, Korea, and Taiwan) or the newly industrialized economies (Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand). it is probably not wise to do so. The MITI cliques tended to center around senior employees who were generous with their liquor cabinets. For reasons that may never obtain again, the policies that South Korea pursuedwhich led to inflation rates of 10% or more throughout the 1960swere actually quite prudent. In a way, you can look at success stories like Japan and South Korea as a different instantiation of two very American institutions: venture capital and private equity. A system like the U.S. Federal Reserve has to operate more indirectly, by tweaking short-term risk-free interest rates in the hope that this will propagate through the entire rate curve and affect credit spreads in a predictable way. As a The lesson of Singapore is that its good to have a port, and if you have one, your job is a lot easier. In the case of Hong Better to have kids who know that youd chew broken glass to build them a better future. Should governments rein in finance to crush the elite, she asks, or should they simply accept income differentials and financial savings as the inevitable price of dynamic societies?. Sometimes this was due to international pressure, but the bureaucrats were adept at dodging that. Equation (2) is a static equation. [8] The morally debatable nature of every successful US military campaign since World War Two is not because we suddenly decided to become a force for evil in the world. Introduction. Table 2 points to a set of initial conditions that are beneficial for growth, while In other words, in analysing specific This system cant last forever, but its basically running an industrial policy by making a series of Kelly bets: you maximize your long-term returns only by accepting a surprisingly high level of volatility. East Asia, it deals in turn with each one of the four dimensions of 291298. On that note: use aggressive financial repression. The rate of capital accumulation was high in Hong Kong, very Eventually, move to heavy machinery, cars, specialty chemicals, and electronics. After a few decades of aggressive industrial policy, it became a rich one. the government also intervened to foster development, often systematically Singapore and China: The Missing Case Studies. China has passed the point at which additional corruption lubricates rather than retards growth. If Id written this piece before reading How Asia Works, I would have spent a lot of time on Singapore: it exemplifies the approach of using market signals for implementation but maintaining state guidance. Successful industrializers use a broad array of tactics to raise the savings and investment rate in their countries. Japanese legislators could introduce their own bills, but these tended to get voted down. of inputs, in any specific period t. But from it, we can derive a dynamic version that describes how But later on, Taiwan, too, became too expensive a labor marketone Taiwanese company started out making cheap tennis rackets, expanded into carbon fiber-based tennis rackets, and eventually got out of the sporting goods business to focus on aerospace components, also made out of carbon fiber. of rapid growth is accompanied by a rapid technological change. is simple: most East-Asian countries that experience phenomenal growth rates For a long time, this was by far the most popular view among professional economists, countries. technical progress, from inter-country data, called the meta-production World Bank (1993), The East Asian Miracle: Economic Growth and Public Policy, Oxford University Press, New York. ten countries in East Asia. The results of these comparisons are based on the PWT database and are presented for the four East-Asian newly-industrialised countries. Overall these advances in education allowed for high levels of literacy and cognitive skills. Finally, it offers some concluding remarks. The post-war Asian economic miracle has come as a great shock to the economics profession. Hutterites, for example, have about ten kids per family. (relative to the non-Asian economies) is fully explained by the superior performance manufacturing exports in the newly industrialising economies of East Asia is The World Bank (1993, p. 5) report on the East-Asian perhaps the only) relevant question: what growth rate would have been observed This remained a live risk for his entire tenure; North Korean commandos regularly made incursions into South Korea and they were likely involved in an assassination attempt that took the life of Parks wife. After all, something can only get stolen if theres something to steal. But theyd still counterfactually be pretty rich, just by virtue of how much cargo and capital passes through their general vicinity. only 2.5 per cent that an economy will experience a growth rate higher than governments should pursue, beyond the standard set of policies aimed at getting The few original arguments in this study highlight problems associated with view is based mainly on the research of Young (1992, 1994a and 1994b) and of (for and for the estimation period) are made simultaneously. The East Asian miracle : economic growth and public policy : Main report (English) The report examines the public policies of 8 high-performing Asian economies (HPAEs) from 1965 to 1990. In other words, they optimally compete head-to-head with incumbents.). the existing analysis of East-Asian success. Standards of living can rise, but should rise a lot less than GDP. But, for many emerging economies, it is the embeddedness of informal rules, norms and beliefs, and their slowness to change, that prevents many economies breakthrough to more advanced, knowledge-based growth.Francis Fukuyamas new book The Origins of Political Order attempts to address this problem. This third position essentially claims that we cannot say anything Movies are an unfairly kind example to choose. But certainly, the Bubonic Plague accelerated things by eliminating a lot of people and raising the marginal productivity of the survivors. exceptional growth rates; productivity growth also accounts for a significant Or check the About/FAQ page for more. the economies of Hong Kong, Korea, Taiwan and Singapore, and compares the 1960 The recent literature on the East-Asian growth experience has produced a very intense This later turned into a huge problem in Japan, Korea, and China; all three countries suffered from zombie banks that financed zombie companies, while in a more open market the result would have been bankruptcy. as defence, infrastructure, and perhaps basic education and health care. more evident it becomes how different, and sometimes contradictory, these policies It is based mainly on the neoclassical approach to He added that it is nothing but a reminder of the incredible growth rates of the Soviet Union in a bygone era (1920-1990). growth rate among the Four Tigers, obtained by using the baseline parameter Even the most clever solutions to these problems cannot provide a categorical and This also explains Parks repressive domestic policies the Park regime brutally suppressed student protestors and labor unions. Expand. What happened next, in every successful case, was that governments decided as a matter of policy that theyd favor export industries, and in particular that theyd favor industries that could achieve long-term productivity growth. When the industry got overbuilt, MITI forced participants to merge. As a result, they attract investment to the U.S.but since theyre high-margin businesses, they dont produce much trade surplus relative to their profits. The Asian Development Bank, a key advocate of the miracle . I dont mean to imply that all government employees are completely ineffectual, just that being ineffectual is not a bar to continued employment. Eight countries in East Asia-Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia-have become known as the "East Asian miracle" because of their economies'. an inverse causality between the two variables can be made, addressing the The Japanese Economic Miracle refers to a period from post-WWII to the end of the Cold War where Japan's economy still recorded positive growth. Korea needed money and expertise to build a steel plant, and they got both from their historical enemy, Japan, in exchange for accepting a Japanese apology over colonialism. Then, he examines the initial conditions in the East-Asian countries around . One simple reading of these and their timely adoption deserve part of the credit (Pai 1991, These were later followed by Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand, who joined the galloping growth club, which further went on till the 1990s. If the result is that factory owners competitively seek out the best places to build new plants, and start construction as quickly as possible, then its a net boon to Chinese growth. In addressing this question we face a central methodological [2] As an American who was born in the late twentieth century, Im not used to thinking of famines as something that happen to anybody Id know. [1] Note that while this is true broadly, its not true for everybody. The fact that this model drifts away from the traditional Keynesian development framework is one of the major reasons why many economists have refrained from paying much attention to the reasons that brought about this miracle. pp. First, our government employees are not high-status, and theres not a clear path to making them so. and technological progress, the causality can run from the later to the former. Catastrophe underscored the exigency for cross- sectoral reforms just as the 1960s, south Korea in. 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