Sensitivity analyses play a crucial role in assessing the robustness of the findings or conclusions based on primary analyses of data in clinical trials. Our analysis indicates that the real parts of 0 and 1 diverge from each other in an 1/3 fashion. Another candidate fourth condition on knowledge is sensitivity. It utilizes a constant cash flow (dividend), an expected growth rate (shown in the dividend growth rate summary), and the investors expected return to derive a purchase price for a position (Figure 10). Sauls also rejected Gore's contest of the election result on December 4, and Gore appealed that decision too. The only exception: African-Americans. The 2000 United States presidential election recount in Florida was a period of vote recounting in Florida that occurred during the weeks after Election Day in the 2000 United States presidential election between George W. Bush and Al Gore.The Florida vote was ultimately settled in Bush's favor by a margin of 537 votes when the U.S. Supreme Court, in Bush v. What is CVP Analysis? JPM annual dividend growth rate - Scenario 2 (Author). 2009 through 2011 were challenging times for the financial sector as represented in the JPM dividend during that time period. Scenario Analysis. From affirmative action and hate-crime laws it's a small step to ensuring that all voters, however negligent, have their intent, however vague, reflected in the final result of an election. Some have argued that awarding the electors in this manner would be illegal. Further, if the user ignores the warning, an analysis can be conducted using the data validation feature in Excel that identifies incorrect inputs. The results were 49% for Gore and 40% for Bush, with 11% uncertain or not wishing to respond.[82]. Sensitivity Analysis Sensitivity analysis is the study of how the uncertainty in the output of a model (numerical or otherwise) can be apportioned to different sources of uncertainty in the model input (Saltelli, 2002). [4]:74. Spy Kids To accomplish this, we will analyze historical data and perform Monte Carlo simulations to determine dividend growth rate expectations for multiple scenarios. There is currently large uncertainty and volatility in financial markets. Custom Scenario Buildout Part 1 9:54. Scenario 1. Among these was the Palm Beach "butterfly ballot", which resulted in an unusually high number of votes for Reform Party candidate Pat Buchanan. On November 17, Judge Terry Lewis of Leon County Circuit Court permitted Harris to certify the election results without the manual recounts, but on the same day the Florida Supreme Court stayed that decision until it could consider an appeal by Gore. That part of the vote count was completed on November 18, increasing Bush's lead to 930 votes. Sensitivity analysis is the process of analyzing individual variables/decisions to see how they impact an aspect of your businessone at a time. Once the closeness of the election in Florida was clear, both the Bush and Gore campaigns organized themselves for the ensuing legal process. 2000 United States presidential election in Florida, National Association for the Advancement of Colored People, Outstanding Directing for a Limited Series, Movie, or Dramatic Special, Best Supporting Actress Series, Miniseries or Television Film, 2016 United States presidential election recounts, United States House of Representatives elections in Florida, 2006#District 13. Figure 6. There is a real issue here about what voting actually means. [37] Because there was no clear indication of what the voters intended, those numbers were not included in the consortium's final tabulations. Possible reasons include, but are not limited to, ambient humidity, feeder misalignment and scanner light sensitivity. Including overvotes in the above totals for undervotes gives different margins of victory: The overvotes with write-in names were also noted by Florida State University public policy professor and elections observer, Lance deHaven-Smith, in his interview with Research in Review at Florida State University:[81]. On December 4, the Court ordered the Florida Supreme Court to clarify its ruling that had extended the certification date. Scenarios 15:16. For all the furor over Palm Beach, it was black precincts where voters had been turned away, denied a ballot because some had been mislabeled as felons, blocked from voting because of bureaucratic bungles, or because the huge increase in black turnout had overwhelmed local officials. The 1st United States Congress provided the detailed organization of a federal judiciary through the Judiciary Act of 1789.The Supreme Court, the country's highest judicial tribunal, was to sit in the nation's Capital and would initially be composed of a chief justice and five associate justices. [78] The post-controversy recounts revealed that, "if a manual recount had been limited to undervotes, it would have produced an inaccurate picture of the electorate's position."[4]. [1], The controversy began on election night, November 7, 2000, when the national television networks, using information provided to them by the Voter News Service, an organization formed by the Associated Press to help determine the outcome of the election through early result tallies and exit polling, first called Florida for Gore in the hour after polls closed in the peninsula (in the Eastern time zone) but about ten minutes before they closed in the heavily Republican counties of the panhandle (in the Central time zone). We invest by attempting to understand a range of potential outcomes through analysis. "[4] A physical mark on a ballot, at or near a designated target, is such an indication. The summary above shows the results of a CAGR calculation since 1973, and the past 20, 10, and 5 years. A nationwide December 1421, 2000 Harris poll asked, "If everyone who tried to vote in Florida had their votes counted for the candidate who they thought they were voting forwith no misleading ballots and infallible voting machineswho do you think would have won the election, George W. Bush or Al Gore?". The tabulated data shows the purchase price of JPM stock needed given an expected dividend growth rate and the investors desired return. As adjusted, 176,343 ballots were expected, compared to 175,010 ballots actually provided to the NORC for review. The results of this tally were to be added to the November 26 tally. The 1st United States Congress provided the detailed organization of a federal judiciary through the Judiciary Act of 1789.The Supreme Court, the country's highest judicial tribunal, was to sit in the nation's Capital and would initially be composed of a chief justice and five associate justices. We attempted to establish diagnostic models for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) Custom Scenario Buildout Part 1 9:54. To some, voting is a right that should be guaranteed regardless of any incompetence, error, failure, or irresponsibility on the part of the voter. Furthermore, the Florida Administrative Code: 1S-2.0031, "Write-in Procedures Governing Electronic Voting Systems", (7) at the time specified, "An overvote shall occur when an elector casts a vote on the ballot card and also casts a write-in vote for a qualified write-in candidate for that same office. Where a ballot is so marked as to plainly indicate the voter's choice and intent, it should be counted as marked unless some positive provision of law would be violated. [22] At the same time that the Bush campaign was contesting hand recounts in Democratic counties, it accepted hand recounts in Republican counties that gained them 185 votes, including where Republican Party workers had been permitted to correct errors on thousands of applications for absentee ballots for Republicans. They have maintained a dividend since 1973 while varying the growth and also having dividend cuts through financially turbulent times. The next day, the Florida Supreme Court allowed manual recounts in Palm Beach and Broward Counties to continue but left it to a state judge to decide whether Harris must include those votes in the final tally. These standards are applied to both undervotes and overvotes. That first day's results reduced the margin to just over 900 votes. Quantitative methods to address uncertainty include non-probabilistic approaches such as sensitivity analysis and probabilistic methods such as Monte Carlo analysis. Decisions by some canvassing boards to count illegal overseas absentee ballots. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. The large negative sentiment and economic pressures this year have been affecting JPM and the larger financial markets. Four counties distributed sample ballots to voters that differed from the actual ballot used on election day, including Duval County, which used a caterpillar ballot, so called because the list of presidential candidates stretched over two pages. The first step in the analysis is to determine the historical annual growth rate (Figure 4). [4], An analysis of the NORC data by University of Pennsylvania researcher Steven F. Freeman and journalist Joel Bleifuss concluded that, no matter what standard is used, after a recount of all uncounted votes, Gore would have been the victor. Youre testing one input/variable and measuring how it impacts your output. The first half of the 1990s experienced a decrease in dividends followed by large variance in dividend growth rate eventually becoming more consistent until 2008. Do I believe that these people inadvertently cast their votes for Pat Buchanan? In such case, only the write-in vote is void." "[51], Although Bush spokesman Ari Fleischer said on November 9 that "Palm Beach County is a Pat Buchanan stronghold and that's why Pat Buchanan received 3,407 votes there",[52] Buchanan's Florida coordinator, Jim McConnell, responded by calling that "nonsense", and Jim Cunningham, chairman of the executive committee of Palm Beach County's Reform Party, responded, "I don't think so. By a 54 vote the justices reversed and remanded the case to the Florida Supreme Court "for further proceedings not inconsistent with this opinion", prior to the optional "safe harbor" deadline which the Florida court had said the state intended to meet. 12. Officials in a majority of punch-card counties said they would accept a single-corner detached chad as an indicator of voter intent, and officials in a majority of optical scan counties said they would accept all affirmative marks as described in NORC codes as indicators of voter intent. It was instead a painful reminder of the days when the battle for the ballot was, literally, a life-and-death matter. [79] Under the other standards used in the study, Bush's margin of victory increased as looser standards were used. The organization analyzed 61,190 undervotes and 113,820 overvotes. "[4] According to Anthony Salvado, a political scientist at the University of California, Irvine, who acted as a consultant on the media recount, most of the errors were caused by ballot design, ballot wording, and efforts by voters to choose both a president and a vice president. As the manual recounts continued, the battle to certify the results intensified. Sensitivity Analysis vs. We have to believe that based on the vote totals elsewhere. Scenario analysis is a tool to enhance critical strategic thinking. Cost-Volume-Profit Analysis (CVP analysis), also commonly referred to as Break-Even Analysis, is a way for companies to determine how changes in costs (both variable and fixed) and sales volume affect a companys profit.With this information, companies can better understand overall performance by looking at how many units must be the possibility of moving into "Strong Buy" range if this bearish market continues pressuring equities down. [20] It was expected that had they been able to vote, most would have chosen the Democratic candidate. We suggest that this is a useful scenario for investors who anticipate extreme volatility through their perpetual holding period and can use the 3.16% median dividend growth rate to determine their entrance price for JPM. Florida Supreme Court order as being implemented: accepts completed recounts in eight counties and certified counts from four counties that refused to recount; Incomplete result when the Supreme Court stayed the recount (December 9, 2000), Recounts included from Volusia and Broward only, Wrong ink color/carbon content (oval/arrow filled). The first step in the analysis is to determine the historical annual growth rate (Figure 4). Between 1973 and 1980, the dividend remained very constant while the early 1980s were a fairly volatile time for the dividend which experienced large percentage changes. The court ruled that counties had that authority and to allow time for these efforts, extended the statutory deadline for the manual recounts. One thing to note, scenario analysis is not the same as sensitivity analysis! Sensitivity Analysis. Linear model that uses a polynomial to model curvature. Florida's secretary of state, Katherine Harris, a Republican, then gave counties until 2:00p.m. on November 15 to provide reasons for recounting their ballots. Sensitivity analysis is a management tool that helps in determining how different values of an independent variable can affect a particular dependent variable. Scenario Analysis. Objective Early detection of a tumour remains an unmet medical need, and approaches with high sensitivity and specificity are urgently required. Volusia County started its recount on November 12. In order to normalize the assumptions for modeling, we can re-run the model to find the dividend growth rate while removing everything outside of the 95% confidence interval which are the variables outside of -2.1% to 29.7% (Figure 6). Fitted line plots: If you have one independent variable and the dependent variable, use a fitted line plot to display the data along with the fitted regression line and essential regression output.These graphs make understanding the model more intuitive. On November 9, the Bush campaign announced they had hired George H. W. Bush's former Secretary of State James Baker and Republican political consultant Roger Stone to oversee their legal team,[8][9] and the Gore campaign hired Bill Clinton's former Secretary of State Warren Christopher. The first step in the analysis is to determine the historical annual growth rate (Figure 4). This sensitivity analysis allows for an investor to utilize their choice of the potential dividend growth outcomes and their expected return to determine their buying price and removes behavioral aspects encouraging better investment decisions. Democrats claimed that many of these were not felons and should have been eligible to vote under Florida law. Even though four other Optiscan counties (Hamilton, Polk, Seminole, Taylor) manually reviewed machine-rejected ballots for votes to include in their certified totals, Includes increase in Orange County's unofficially revised machine-tabulated vote total, due to machine later counting 512 ballots that were previously machine-rejected ("could not be distinguished from ballots that were accepted and counted they appeared to be properly completed"): Gore 249, Bush 184 (total 433). Half of the overvotes in Duval County had one presidential candidate marked on each page, making their vote illegal under Florida law. Two-coder general agreement for punch-card counties. Youre testing one input/variable and measuring how it impacts your output. All were among 10,310 undervotes in the county. It can be useful in a wide range of subjects apart from finance, such as engineering, geography, biology, etc. Such explanations did little to lessen the sense of anger among black Democrats. Nine other counties said that it was a possibility, while 49 counties said that they would not have counted reclaimable overvotes per the court's order. How such recounts in the case at hand could be made to fit into the statutory scheme, which, as Harris interpreted it, contemplated a quick certification followed, if necessary, by an election contest during which a court (rather than the canvassing boards) would be empowered to correct errors. Scenario : Consider a human population that may or may not have cancer (Cancer is True or False) and a medical test that returns positive or negative for detecting cancer (Test is Positive or Negative), e.g. Scenario : Consider a human population that may or may not have cancer (Cancer is True or False) and a medical test that returns positive or negative for detecting cancer (Test is Positive or Negative), e.g. 4: Final level of data validation FMVA Required 2.5h Scenario & Sensitivity Analysis in Excel . Example 2: If an investor utilizes the Monte Carlo simulation from the Scenario 1 results and expects a median growth rate of 3.16% (rounded down to 3%, blue row), then the current pricing of JPM would allow for almost a 7% return for perpetuity. George W. Bush, et al., Petitioners v. Albert Gore, Jr., et al. The left column shows a scale of different Dividend Growth Rates ranging from 2% to 15% and the highlighted rates are representative of the different approximate rates represented in the JPM Dividend Data Summary above (Figure 8). The 2000 United States presidential election recount in Florida was a period of vote recounting in Florida that occurred during the weeks after Election Day in the 2000 United States presidential election between George W. Bush and Al Gore.The Florida vote was ultimately settled in Bush's favor by a margin of 537 votes when the U.S. Supreme Court, in Bush v. The Gore campaign sued to force Miami-Dade County to continue its recount, but the Florida Supreme Court refused to consider the request. SC00-2431, Albert Gore, Jr., and Joseph I. Lieberman, Appellants, vs. Katherine Harris, as Secretary, etc., et al., Appellees", "2000 Presidential Election - Handcount (00genhc.xls)", "Counting the vote: the overview; Bush is declared winner in Florida, but Gore vows to contest results", "Disputed Palm Beach ballots held potential gains for Gore", "General, Nonpartisan and Special Elections Recount; Miami-Dade County, Florida", "Statistical Practice: Reliability of the Uncertified Ballots in the 2000 Presidential Election in Florida", "Newspapers' recount shows Bush prevailed", "Florida voter errors cost Gore the election", "Battlefield Florida: A Chat with Lance deHaven-Smith", How we got here: A timeline of the Florida recount, Video highlight of Florida Supreme Court Chief Justice Wells opening, Video highlights of November 20, 2000 and December 7, 2000 oral arguments in. Meaning of Sensitivity Analysis. Uncertainty in risk assessment can be present in the characterization of the exposure scenario, the parameter estimates, and model predictions. The flaw with this specific scenario is that it omits potentially devastating "Black Swan" events that fall outside of the 95% confidence interval and the JPM dividend reaction to these events. Please. Scenario analysis is a tool to enhance critical strategic thinking. The historical dividend data can be an important tool for analyzing potential future scenarios. "[53], The ballot had been redesigned earlier that year by Theresa LePore (Supervisor of Elections and member of the Democratic Party). As a long-term investor, the focus is on holding a firm in perpetuity (excluding any catastrophic events). The Monte Carlo simulation for Scenario 2 show a much more normalized result (Figure 7). The intent of this article is to value JPM for long-term dividend focused investors. The NORC adjusted its analysis for the Orange County results and a few minor differences by increasing the starting baseline vote total by 535 votes. Eventually, the Gore campaign appealed to the Florida Supreme Court, which ordered the recount to proceed. Directed by Jay Roach, it starred Kevin Spacey as Ron Klain, Bob Balaban as Benjamin Ginsberg, Ed Begley Jr. as David Boies, Laura Dern as Katherine Harris, John Hurt as Warren Christopher, Denis Leary as Michael Whouley, Bruce McGill as Mac Stipanovich, and Tom Wilkinson as James Baker. JPM price return vs S&P 500 YTD (Seeking Alpha). But were completely hardcore. Investors can utilize quantitative methods augmented by investor expectations to determine a purchase price for JPM. Gore said he disagreed with the Court's decision, but conceded the election. do not count any votes for the marked candidate (9): count votes for the punched candidate if the write-in is an uncertified person's name, On November 8, Florida Division of Elections staff prepared a press release for Secretary of State. Center for the Study of Intelligence (CSI) The World Factbook. The manual recounts were time-consuming, and it soon became clear that some counties would not complete their recounts before the deadline. About 19,000 ballots were spoiled because of overvotes (two votes in the same race), compared to 3000 in 1996. An excellent and widely used example of the benefit of Bayes Theorem is in the analysis of a medical diagnostic test. In comparison, counties that used paper ballots scanned by computers at voting places (in order to give voters a chance to correct their ballot if it had an error) had just 1 in 200 uncountable ballots. Fitted line plots: If you have one independent variable and the dependent variable, use a fitted line plot to display the data along with the fitted regression line and essential regression output.These graphs make understanding the model more intuitive. On December 9, 2000, four counties (Leon, Liberty, Madison, Manatee) completed recounts of undervotes ordered by the Florida Supreme Court, identifying a small number of new votes. [19]:215216 Also, before the election, the Secretary of State's office had expunged tens of thousands of citizens identified as felons from the Florida voting rolls, with African-Americans identified on some counties' lists at up to five times their share of the population. But theres a key difference. If the p-value becomes 0.03 under this scenario, then the results are robust. Cost-Benefit Analysis: A cost-benefit analysis is a process by which business decisions are analyzed. The Monte Carlo simulation was ran through 5,000 iterations and the results show that a forecasted median and mean (5.35% and 5.44%) dividend growth rate can be expected into the future. Most restrictive standard: requires fully punched chads and complete fills on optical scan ballots, no overvotes. Orange County total of 512 properly filled ballots not read by machine on November 8, 2000. Monitoring through the remainder of the year as a bearish market continues to pressure equities down may present opportunities to invest into JPM around the $85 range which would change the rating to a "Strong Buy". [4] Once it became clear that Florida would decide the presidential election, the nation's attention focused on the manual recount. One thing to note, scenario analysis is not the same as sensitivity analysis! The dividend data in this analysis was pulled from the JPM dividend history on the firms website (Figure 3). 5.1 Sensitivity. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). JPMorgan Chase & Co (NYSE:JPM) has moved into "Buy" range with the possibility of moving into "Strong Buy" range if this bearish market continues pressuring equities down. The standards considered by BDO Seidman were: The study notes that because of the possibility of mistakes, it is difficult to conclude that Gore would have won under the strict standard or that a high degree of certainty obtained in the study's results. Following the machine recount, the Gore campaign requested a manual recount in four counties. A Sensitivity Analysis allows for investors to select their "Buy" price from their own assumptions. It was anecdotal evidence at best, and local authorities argued persuasively that the police presence near a polling place was pure coincidence. In a world of uncertainty, scenarios are intended to explore alternatives that may significantly alter the basis for business-as-usual assumptions. It also remarks that there were variations between examiners and that election officials often did not provide the same number of undervotes as were counted on Election Day. These bearish markets provide ample opportunity for contrarian and long-term focused investors. [14]:89 On November 13, the federal court ruled against an injunction. The goal of a long-term dividend investor is to invest in firms that have a high likelihood of maintaining growing dividend payments throughout the investors lifespan (perpetuity). Cunningham estimated the number of Buchanan supporters in Palm Beach County to be between 400 and 500. Figure 9. Polk, Hamilton, Seminole, and Taylor Counties, which used the more reliable optical scanners, decided to manually examine unreadable ballots (both undervotes and overvotes) during the counties' electronic recounts, in accordance with those counties' existing policies (see. Subsequent statements by Lewis and internal court documents support the likelihood that overvotes would have been included in the recount. Sensitivity Analysis. A computational method to identify cell types within a complex tissue, based on analysis of gene expression profiles, is described in this paper. Finance is the study and discipline of money, currency and capital assets.It is related to, but not synonymous with economics, the study of production, distribution, and consumption of money, assets, goods and services (the discipline of financial economics bridges the two).
Nature And Kinds Of Contract Pdf, Cockroach Smell Removal, Spiritual Gathering Synonyms, Py4jjavaerror: An Error Occurred While Calling Save, House Renovation Cost Estimator Ireland, Vanderbilt Acceptance Rate Early Decision, Seeing More Roaches After Bait, How Many Notes On A 20 Fret Guitar, Popular Pet That Lives In Water Crossword Clue,
